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Bryan, C., E. Tipton & D. Yeager Behavioral science is unlikely to change the world without a heterogeneity revolution

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Authors:
Christopher J. Bryan, Elizabeth Tipton & David S. Yeager 

Release date:
2021

Publication:
Nature Human Behaviour, Volume 5, pages 980–989

In the past decade, behaviorral science has gained influence in policymaking but suffered a crisis of confidence in the replicability of its findings. Here, the authors describe a nascent heterogeneity revolution that they believe these twin historical trends have triggered. This revolution will be defined by the recognition that most treatment effects are heterogeneous, so the variation in effect estimates across studies that defines the replication crisis is to be expected as long as heterogeneous effects are studied without a systematic approach to sampling and moderation. When studied systematically, heterogeneity can be leveraged to build more complete theories of causal mechanism that could inform nuanced and dependable guidance to policymakers. The authors recommend investment in shared research infrastructure to make it feasible to study behavioral interventions in heterogeneous and generalizable samples, and suggest low-cost steps researchers can take immediately to avoid being misled by heterogeneity and begin to learn from it instead.

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